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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 1st, 2013–Dec 2nd, 2013
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Purcells.

The storm is expected to bring more snow to the West and South of the region. New storm slabs are expected to be very easy to trigger during the storm and may run naturally in some parts of the region.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Monday: 10-25 cm of snow overnight as the cold arctic air from the North meets the warm moist Pacific air crossing from the West. The West and South of the region should see the higher snowfall amounts. Freezing levels dropping to valley bottoms and winds becoming moderate from the Northeast by Monday afternoon.Tuesday: Cold and dry with light Northeast winds.Wednesday: Sunny with colder temperatures in the East and North of the region.

Avalanche Summary

New storm slabs are expected to develop overnight. Storm slab avalanches may be easily triggered where recently buried weak layers exist. The new load of storm snow, or storm slabs in motion may cause avalanches to release on this crust layer. The most likely place you would trigger this layer is on smooth, planar, north facing slopes.

Snowpack Summary

New storm slabs are developing above weak surface layers of facetted crystals and melt/freeze crusts. These recently buried weak layers may not support the new load of storm snow that is forecast. The deeply buried early season crust continues to be a concern. There have been reports of weak sugary crystals at the crust interface that may create an easy sliding surface and allow for wide propagations.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New storm slabs are developing. Forecast strong Westerly winds may cause these slabs to be very easy to trigger.
Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.>The new snow may require several days to settle and stabilize due to the presence of newly buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

The added load from the new snow may overload the deeply buried weak layer of early season crust. Northerly aspects in the alpine are the most suspect areas for this crust to become reactive.
Storm slabs in motion may trigger deeper instabilities.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of a buried crust/ facet combo.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6