Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain for the entire period

Overnight Thursday: Freezing levels are expected to remain at about 1100 metres combined with moderate westerly winds and light precipitation (3-5 mm) in the North of the region near Golden. Further South expect to see closer to 10 mm, that may bring about 20 cms to alpine elevations.Friday: Expect freezing levels to rise up to about 1400 metres during the day. Winds are forecast to continue to be moderate from the SW. Forecast precipitation amounts vary across the region. The western areas adjacent to Glacier National Park and the high alpine of the Bugaboos and Bobbie Burns ranges should see about 15 mm of precipitation, the eastern areas around Golden and Kimberley may only see 2-5 mm of precipitation.Saturday: Continued waves of light precipitation are expected during the day. Moderate precipitation combined with moderate westerly winds are forecast for Saturday night.Sunday: The freezing level should lower to valley bottoms as the winds lighten and back to the South. Light precipitation is expected to continue as another wave of moisture is spun off of the Pacific Low that is anchored in the Gulf of Alaska.

A few observations from last weekend have trickled in. They mostly involve the November 17th surface hoar layer. Riders triggered a few different avalanches on this layer with most of them coming in at size 1.5. There is an unconfirmed report of at least one partial burial in the Quartz Creek area. Thankfully, it sounds like everyone is okay. Crown depth was around 40 cm.

An incredible amount of variability exists in the region. In the north the alpine snowpack is near 2 m in depth, in steep contrast alpine depths in the south are just over a foot.  Current surface conditions range from zipper crust to surface hoar.  These layers may be players as storm totals begin to stack up late Thursday evening. A deeper surface hoar layer we're calling the November 17th SH can be found down around 60 cm in depth. This was a player in at least one close call last weekend. There's a stout rain crust near the ground that we're calling the early November crust. There are some facets below it too, but it's unreactive at this time. There is still a sharp transition in snow depth from treeline to below treeline making backcountry travel challenging under the 1300 m in elevation. Remember, it's still November.