Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

A fast moving front will spread some precipitation Friday night and Saturday before the ridge rebuilds on Sunday..Saturday: up to 5 cm new snow expected with freezing levels around 1000 m. Ridgetop winds 50-70 km/h from the southwest.Sunday and Monday: Dry, with a mix of sun and cloud. Freezing levels around 800 m. Winds light southwesterly.

In the far Northern part of the region, there was an avalanche cycle that ended on 15th Jan at all elevation and on all aspects. Multiple natural releases up to size 3.5. Most of these avalanches would have run on the early January surface hoar layer buried under the storm snow at treeline and below treeline on low angled terrain. In the Southern part, a few small slab avalanches were reported from steep leeward terrain. Around that time, a size 2.5 natural avalanche was reported which took place near Smithers on a SE aspect around 1600 m.

The increased solar radiation and warming trend is keeping avalanche conditions elevated for tomorrow. The intense heat will weaken the surface of the snowpack and most likely increase avalanche activity on all aspects, but especially on S and SE aspects slopes when the sun comes out. There is a possibility that loose wet or slabs could step down to deeper instabilities.The past wind event has created extensive windslabs in the alpine and at treeline. Those settled rapidly with the mild temperatures but could become more sensitive with the forecasted warm temperatures and solar radiation. The buried surface hoar layer at treeline and the basal facets in thin rocky areas at treeline and in the alpine could become more reactive with the forecasted heat shock.