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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 12th, 2025–Jan 13th, 2025
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

A weak layer down 30-50cm is prime for human triggering, especially where the snow above has been stiffened by the wind.

Carefully evaluate your line from a safe location!

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanches have been observed in the last 2 days. Although the natural cycle has slowed, human triggering remain possible to likely where the new snow overlays surface hoar. There have been several reports of rider triggered avalanches up to size 1 in neighbouring terrain.

Numerous natural avalanches were observed on Friday into early Saturday morning, caused by new snow and southerly wind. These averaged size 2-3 and were running far into the runouts.

Snowpack Summary

We've received ~50cm of new snow since Jan 7th. This new snow buries a weak interface, which consists of widespread surface hoar on all aspects into the high alpine, and a thin suncrust on steep S to W aspects. Moderate southerly winds have redistributed this new snow in wind exposed terrain.

Overall the mid and lower snowpack is strong and well settled.

Weather Summary

High pressure stabilizes, deflecting storms north.

Tonight Mainly cloudy. Alpine low -12°C. Wind W-15km/hr. Freezing level (FZL) at valley bottom.

Mon Mix of sun & cloud. Alpine high -5 °C. Wind W-20km/hr. FZL 900m. Alpine temperature inversion.

Tues Mainly cloudy. Alpine high -3 °C. Wind W-25km/hr. FZL 1500m.

Wed Mainly cloudy. Alpine high -2°C. Wind SW-25km/hr. FZL 1400m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, or recent avalanches.
  • Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff and/or slabby.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Moderate southerly winds and 50cm of new snow this week formed fresh wind slabs that sit on a weak layer comprised of surface hoar and/ or a crust. This layer has shown a high likelihood for propagation in tests done on a wind affected slope in the alpine.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Storm Slabs

Up to 50cm of new snow this week is settling into a slab, even where sheltered from the wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2