Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Northwest Coastal.
Make cautious terrain choices, buried weak layers are getting stressed by new snow and could produce large avalanches.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how buried persistent weak layers will react with the forecast incoming weather.
Weather Forecast
THURSDAY NIGHT: Snow flurries with 5-10 cm of snow, 30-50 km/h wind from the west, alpine temperatures drop to -5 C.
FRIDAY: Scattered flurries with 5-15 cm of snow, 30-50 km/h wind from the southwest, alpine high temperatures around -2 C.
SATURDAY: Snow, heavy at times, 15-30 cm, 40-70 km/h wind from the south, alpine high temperatures around -1 C with freezing level up to 800 m.
SUNDAY: Scattered flurries with 5-10 cm of snow, 30-40 km/h wind from the south, alpine high temperatures around -3 C.
Avalanche Summary
Recent avalanche activity has been limited in size 1-2 avalanches in the uppermost layers of snow (storm slabs and wind slabs), however ongoing snowfall is adding stress to buried surface hoar layers. Even though no recent avalanches have been reported on these persistent weak layers, they could be reaching the tipping point for producing large avalanches.
On Thursday a few size 1-2 wind slabs were triggered naturally and with explosives. Similar activity has been reported during each snowfall event over the past week.
Snowpack Summary
10-30 cm of recent snow has been blown around by moderate to strong southwest wind. 20-40 cm of recent snow overlies a thin layer of surface hoar and a total of 40-80 cm of snow now overlies a more prominent weak layer of surface hoar, old faceted surfaces, and/or a crust on south/southwesterly alpine slopes. This more prominent surface hoar layer has been reactive in snowpack tests, providing evidence it is at a tipping point where any additional load (such as a person) could trigger an avalanche on this layer. Heavy snowfall could easily overload this layer. Reports from the Shames area suggest the surface hoar layer is on all aspects, but more prevalent on southeast to southwest aspects around 800-1400 m, and more likely in leeward and sheltered alpine areas. The lower snowpack is generally considered strong.
Terrain and Travel
- Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
- Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
Additional loading from storm snow and wind will stress a weak layer of surface hoar, now anywhere from 40-80 cm deep.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Wind Slabs
Moderate to strong wind has formed unstable slabs around ridges and in lee terrain features.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2