Avalanche Forecast
Jan 3rd, 2019–Jan 4th, 2019
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Regions: Olympics.
The bottom line: Shallow amounts of new snow and cooler snow levels will transition Hurricane Ridge away from wet snow problems on Friday. You'll likely find a slowly refreezing upper snowpack with pockets of new thin wind slab near and above treeline. We have no direct snowpack or avalanche observations from this area. Take the time to evaluate conditions for yourself before entering avalanche terrain.
Avalanche and Snowpack Discussion
We have not had any direct snowpack observations from the Hurricane Ridge area in three weeks.
Forecast schedule
For the 2018-19 winter season, avalanche hazard ratings will be issued for the Olympics Friday through Sunday and during holidays. We are not issuing ratings currently due to the National Parks closure.
General snowpack and weather summaries will be available on days that the Hurricane Ridge road is closed.
Regional Synopsis
Happy New Year!
Thanks to all of you who volunteer, send observations, and support NWAC in various ways - we appreciate it.
December of 2018 was fun (from a forecasting perspective) with three pronounced avalanche cycles, a couple different persistent weak layers, some rain events, and a flurry of human triggered avalanches to ring in the New Year. Most importantly, it seems that we made it through the last days of 2018 without anyone getting seriously hurt by an avalanche.
The deep (Dec 9) layer responsible for many of the avalanches early in the month no longer seems to be a problem in the western zones. That said, it is still possible to trigger an avalanche on its counterpart (or basal facets) in the eastern areas.
A widespread layer of surface hoar formed around Christmas. Late December storms preserved this layer in areas above the rain line and we have numerous (more than a dozen) reports of people triggering avalanches on it in the last three days. At least 4 people were caught and carried during this period, but so far we have no reports of serious injury. Most of these avalanches were soft slabs, D1-D2+, but there were several harder wind slabs in the mix.
It appears that the layer is most reactive and/or prevalent in the Crystal Mountain backcountry and in the mountains around Leavenworth and west of Mazama.
Surface Hoar can be an especially tricky and persistent weak layer. Read more about it here.