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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 17th, 2014–Jan 18th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

The natural avalanche cycle is slowing down but many slopes that have not yet slid just need a trigger.  Solar radiation will be intense this weekend so keep an eye on overhead slopes in the sun that will weaken throughout the day. See SPAW here.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

No new snow is in the forecast for the next few days.  The big thing to pay close attention to is daytime warming on solar aspects.  The sun has triggerred a few large avalanches over the past few days so watch for deteiorating stability on solar aspects later in the day. 

Avalanche Summary

No new large avalanches today but there were a few solar triggerred avalanches up to sz 1.5 on solar aspects at treeline and below. 

Snowpack Summary

Thin melt freeze crust now exists on solar aspects up to 2400m.  Otherwise, expect pockets of hard slabs overlying a weak facetted base.  This weak facetted base is the reason that many of the avalanaches that have occurred recently involve the entire snowpack.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Windslabs are beginning to settle out and strengthen but they are still a problem.  Be careful as you transition into more open wind affected terrain.
Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches were observed on steep solar aspects on friday.  Some of the loose wet slides pulled out small slabs on underlying slopes.  Be aware of the potential for these smaller slides to step down to the deeper basal problems.
Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

This layer came to life during the recent avalanche cycle and many large events were observed on this layer.  Any avalanche in the upper snowpack may step down to the basal facets so be thinking about large avalanches as you travel.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 6