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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

May 2nd, 2014–May 3rd, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Kananaskis.

The snowpack is now saturated with rain  at treeline and below. As the temperatures fall, large avalanches will still be likely due to the rapid heating of the snowpack from today's rain. If traveling below treeline, avoid avalanche runout zones.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

The forecasts for our region are changing almost every hour. The most current one shows another 36mm of precip over the next few days. This will be rain at lower elevations and snow at the upper elevations. Tonight the freezing level will be 2300m, and by Saturday morning at 5am the freezing level will be 1500m. The chance of an overnight re-freeze is very, very small given the amount of rain we've had. The alpine winds will be moderate out of the south for the next 24 hours.

Avalanche Summary

no avalanches were seen today but visibility was obscured for the entire day.

Snowpack Summary

Our weather plots have not shown any significant new snow, however this is likely due to the rain and wet snow. During the day today temps at ridge top hovered around -1. Right now the snowpack will be saturated with rain at low elevations, and moist at treeline and alpine elevations. Any incoming snow will be moist and heavy.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Lots of action on this layer yesterday. All avalanche terrain  that hasn't  already slid is capable of large avalanches.
Avoid all avalanche terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 6

Loose Wet

Even areas that aren't typically avalanche terrain can be a problem right now. Loose wet avalanches can flow very far and fast, even in treed terrain.
Avoid steep, open glades in the forest.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3