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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 13th, 2017–Jan 14th, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

We may be at Moderate danger right now but forecasters are skiing like its at considerable and we encourage you to do the same.  The weak snowpack gives us no confidence in bigger or steeper features.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Temps will fell downright tropical tomorrow with daytime highs around -5!  Winds will continue out of the SW in the moderate range at higher elevations.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanche activity was observed on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Windslabs should be expected in Alpine terrain along ridgelines and in crossloaded gully features.  These slabs have become slightly more dense over the past 24hrs due to the sw winds beginning to increase at higher elevations.  Ski cutting on Thursday on a steep S aspect was priducing minor cracking but releases.  Below the upper snowpack windslabs there is a midpack that consists mainly of facets.  The Nov 12th crust has began to facet out and decompose in many areas.  As a result of the poor base, any avalanche that is intitiated in the upper snowpack will likely involve the entire snowpack.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Snow and wind over the past week have created wind slabs up to 20cm thick immediately below ridge crests on all aspects. These slabs are on all aspects as a result of the Northerly flow this past week.
Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded slopesEvaluate unsupported slopes critically.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

More likely to be triggered from thinner areas and step down to the basal facets and involve the entire winters snowpack.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3