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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 14th, 2015–Nov 15th, 2015
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Warm temperatures with winds from the southwest are forecast for Sunday.  There is a significant amount of new storm snow available for redistribution.  An early season snowpack has unpredictable characteristics, keep your terrain choices simple.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number and quality of field observations on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Light flurries will taper off and high freezing levels of approximately 1900 meters will persist through Sunday.  Winds will be moderate to strong out of the SW at treeline and above.  Freezing levels will return to the valley bottoms on Monday.

Avalanche Summary

Minimal observations due to poor visibility.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack consists of 45-50 cm of storm snow that overlies a largely unconsolidated base layer. Some preliminary snowpack observations are indicating a melt freeze crust that exists approximately 10 cm off of the ground but we will continue to investigate other elevations and aspects to determine the prevalence of the layer.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The new storm snow is loaded over a very unconsolidated base of soft snow.  In other words, give the new storm snow some time to settle and strengthen before committing to aggressive terrain features.
Avoid areas with overhead hazard.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are buried and will require some curiosity as to where they exist in the terrain features.  Be suspicious of ridgetop features and on lee aspects.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2