Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 17th, 2015 7:08AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

matt.mueller, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

The incoming weather will determine the change, if any to the danger rating. Watch for local areas of higher accumulation, especially if there is wind. Other than that possible issue, the skiing is definitely worth heading out for.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Flurries will bring us almost 10cm's of snow by tomorrow afternoon. How these flurries arrive will be a bit of a question. Watch the timing of these small systems. If they come early and heavy, there may be enough load to change the avalanche hazard. As usual, the winds will pick up as the warm front arrives. The steady, moderate winds SW may amplify the local snow amounts contributing to a slight rise in hazard. From the looks of it, the cold air will fade away, leaving us with an alpine high of -6.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing to speak of, however field observations were limited today.

Snowpack Summary

Not a lot of change in the last 24hrs. Below treeline, the dec 4th surface hoar layer is down 30cm on average and still not producing avalanches of any character. The cold weather pattern is promoting surface faceting, which is keeping the surface snow loose. At treeline, the Dec 4th interface continues to be the layer to watch. We are seeing occasional shears within the top 40cm, but nothing consistent enough to suggest a widespread avalanche problem. The alpine has windslabs present near ridges and crossloaded terrain. Overall, we've seen about 2cm's of snowpack settlement throughout the forecast region.

Problems

Wind Slabs

These slabs are still present in the alpine. Overall the snowpack is quite strong and supportive. Steep terrain with recent loading will still have potential for human triggered avalanches.

Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded features>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

This problem is in wind prone areas below treeline and the upper reaches of treeline that are exposed to stronger, alpine winds. The slab density above the Dec4th layer will be a factor for avalanche potential. Stiffer slabs are more of a problem.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid unsupported slopes.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Dec 18th, 2015 2:00PM