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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 5th, 2014–Jan 6th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Strong NW winds and warm temps over the next few days will create ideal conditions for slab development.  We may see another round of natural avalache activity initiate with the forecasted winds.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Temperatures are forecast to increase on Monday and as a result, we can also expect winds to increase out of the NW.  No new snow is forecast to fall.  There is a weak inversion forcast for overnight on sunday as the warm air pushes into the region.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous sz 2 slabs were observed along the base of cliff bands in terrline terrain and above (2400m and up). The majority of these avalanches was on N through E aspects. These slabs all appeared to fail within the storm snow and there was no evidence of any activity stepping down to the basal facets and depth hoar.

Snowpack Summary

Cool temps have tightened up the upper snowpack and slowed the settlement of the new snow.  Rutschblock was done today by Field teams on a SE aspect at 2300m on a 35 deg slope.  The recent storm snow failed at 3 during the test and the main part of the block failed down 50cm at the "midpack" depth hoar facet interface.  See video here

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Newly developed skier triggerable wind slabs should be expected in most open wind affected terrain.  With winds increasing on Monday, we can expect these slabs to become more reactive and extended further down the slope. 
Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Enter your line well below ridge crests to avoid wind loaded pillows.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Loose Dry

Be especially cautious of sluffing in steeper terrain, especially on more northern aspects
Avoid travelling on ledges and cliffs where sluffing may have severe consequences.>Sluffs may trigger deeper instabilities.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Not much recent activity on this layer but dont let it slip from your mind.  This is the low probability high consequence avalanche that may occur.  Always be thinking consequence.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 6