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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 27th, 2014–Dec 28th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Slabs sitting on the Dec 13th layer are still trigger-able at higher elevations. This avalanche problem will be slow to improve.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Temperatures will cool significantly over the next couple of days and winds should be light from the NW. Trace amounts of precipitation are expected over then next couple of days.

Avalanche Summary

A few very small sluffs in steep terrain at Alpine and Treeline elevations.

Snowpack Summary

No new snow overnight. Between 15 and 30cm of snow overlies the Dec 13th rain crust depending on elevation. Shears persist at this interface in wind affected terrain. This crust disappears above 2200m in most areas. Profile today at 2150m revealed a very dense mid-pack but this isn't the case in all areas. The November rain crust has deteriorated to facets and depth hoar.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The bond with the Dec 13th rain crust is poor in most areas. This is a concern in wind affected terrain where slabs up to 40cm thick are possible to trigger.
Avoid unsupported slopes.>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

The weak basal layers are still a concern. This problem has a lower probability of triggering, but if a sweet spot is found the entire winter's snowpack could be set in motion.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>Avoid thin, rocky or sparsely-treed slopes.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4