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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 14th, 2016–Feb 15th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

The winds were howling today in our forecast region from alpine to valley bottom. Wind slabs will be the priority concern over the next 24hrs. The Jan 6th facets remain a concern are widespread and are showing no results to moderate sudden collapses.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind effect is extremely variable on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries.  Alpine temperature: High -6 °C. Ridge wind west: 35 km/h gusting to 85 km/h. Freezing level: 1400 meters.

Avalanche Summary

In Banff National Park on friday, a skier triggered avalanche resulted in a full burial and a second near full burial.  This avalanche was a size 2.0 and it failed on the January 6th layer. 

Snowpack Summary

Relatively warm temperatures and strong winds from the northwest are building wind slabs and having a 'reverse loading' effect.  These wind slabs are building over top of the February 11th sun crust and melt-freeze crusts on solar aspects.  The January 6th facet layer is widespread and is buried 40-70 cm from the surface.  Results on the January 6th layer in test pits range from no results to sudden collapses in the moderate range.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong sustained winds in the alpine and treeline are building wind slabs. The winds have shifted to a north westerly direction and will have created wind slabs potentially over melt freeze and solar crusts on solar aspects.
Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Strong winds have redistributed snow in the alpine and treeline created a great deal of variability in depth and distribution of the snowpack. Snowpack tests show a wide spectrum of results from no results to sudden collapses.
Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>Avoid areas with overhead hazard.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>Avoid areas with overhead hazard.>Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5