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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 13th, 2013–Mar 14th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Precipitation and wind forecasts have been highly variable and we have received less snow and wind than predicted.  The new snow forecast for Thursday night will push us into a higher danger rating if it does show up - watch for rain effects to 2100m

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Winds strong west with freezing level forecast in the 2100m range (we have seen freezing levels rising to 2250m in the Burstall area Wednesday PM).  The area has received less new snow than the precip forecast predicted but there is another spike predicted for Thursday night with up to 15cm+ possible.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose, moist slides from steep lee terrain.  One Size 2 SSL NE aspect Mt Smith-Dorrien, no other details.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10cm of new snow at treeline with temperatures rising above zero degrees so rapid settlement and slab formation.  Winds were generally light with occasional periods of strong southerly winds resulting in some redistribution of storm snow along ridgetops.  

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New storm slabs are developing along ridgetops at treeline and above.  A combination of above freezing temperatures, moist snow and rainfall up to 2100m will result in rapid slab formation.
Assess start zones carefully and use safe travel techniques.>Avoid areas with overhead hazard.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5

Wind Slabs

Soft slabs and hard slabs are widespread in alpine and treeline areas. Natural avalanche activity has significantly reduced, but skier-triggering is possible in steep, convex and/or unsupported terrain.
Avoid cross loaded slopes at or above treeline.>Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5