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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 14th, 2015–Jan 15th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Avalanche activity has decreased, but the Dec 17 surface hoar continues to surprise people. Keep this layer in mind as you choose objectives and plan your day.

Weather Forecast

Today should be a mix of sun and cloud, with an alpine high of -1 and light SW winds. On Thursday an incoming system will bring increasing cloud and isolated flurries later in the day. Through Friday we may see up to 15cm of snow with strong and gusty westerly winds which will amplify the new snow depth over the surface hoar that is growing now.

Snowpack Summary

A widespread new surface hoar layer is growing to mountain top. There is sun crust up to 2cm thick is present on steep solar aspects. A cohesive slab sits over the Dec 17 surface hoar, which is down 60cm-100cm. Crust/facet layers are present just below the Dec 17 layer with varying thicknesses depending on aspect and elevation.

Avalanche Summary

Sporadic avalanche activity continues. Small, loose solar triggered avalanches have been observed daily and there were two size 2's from North aspects yesterday. Outside the park a skier was caught in a size 2 when the Dec 17 failed on an unsupported roll. On the weekend a size 2 was ski cut on a moraine which failed on the Dec 17 surface hoar.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The Dec 17 surface hoar is still a major concern. It has become spotty, but is still reactive in areas where it has not already avalanched. This makes it harder to predict but it is possible to trigger large avalanches where it exists.
Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.Avoid convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3