Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 29th, 2016–Nov 30th, 2016

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Fresh, touchy wind slabs and cornices have developed in the alpine. Light loads or brief periods of intense sun may have enough energy to trigger them.

Weather Forecast

A mainly cloudy day with light SW winds. Freezing levels will remain at valley bottom. Wednesday will bring scattered flurries, freezing levels rising to 1200m, and light winds.

Snowpack Summary

Between 50 and 100cm of storm snow now overlies the Nov 13th Crust. Previous strong winds from the Southerly quarter have created wind slabs and cornices. Wind slabs could be hiding under more recently fallen snow. A temp/sun crust is buried around 30cm deep on solar aspects, but it is spotty in distribution.

Avalanche Summary

Reports of small, size 1 skier-triggered soft slabs from E-NE aspects in the Balu Pass area yesterday. Also in the backcountry, small loose, dry avalanches in steep terrain were noted running fast and far at tree-line. Over the weekend, there were numerous avalanches, size 2 to 3, from steep N-facing terrain on Mt Macdonald and Cheops.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Moderate to strong winds, convective flurries and new snow have created wind slabs on lee features. These wind slabs may be triggered by light loads. Highly variable snow depth should be expected in the alpine from wind redistribution.

Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Snowpack settlement is resulting in slab formation over the Nov 13 crust. Field tests on the crust and a stellar layer just above indicate the slab, depending on location, may have a poor bond and be susceptible to human triggering.

Carefully evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes. Choose regroup spots carefully.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3