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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 10th, 2018–Jan 11th, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Olympics.

Shallow recent snow will be available to form small wind slabs on any wind exposed terrain. Watch for changing conditions Wednesday as a strong storm approaches. Early season hazards still exist throughout the Hurricane Ridge area..

Detailed Forecast

A cooling trend continues with scattered light showers overnight Tuesday and early Wednesday with light to moderate winds.

Shallow recent snow will be available for wind transport and may support small wind slabs forming near and above treeline.

The next strong storm is forecast to arrive Wednesday night, however if the storm arrives earlier than forecast expect increasing danger late Wednesday. Watch for changing weather conditions through the day Wednesday and be prepared to alter plans accordingly.  

Early season hazards still exist. Many creek beds have still not filled in for the winter.

Snowpack Discussion

There have been about 4-6" of recent snow since Sunday, with mixed precipitation types reported Sunday morning. The underlying snow is very strong and has formed a supportable crust following last weeks warm temperatures to high elevations.  Any avalanche danger in the Hurricane Ridge area should be confined to the shallow recent snowfall since Sunday as the underlying snowpack is very strong.  

The height of snow across the terrain is quite variable. Numerous obstacles still exist at all elevations.

Observations

NPS rangers reported about 3 inches of new snow as of Tuesday morning.  

NPS rangers Sunday morning reported snowfall on the drive up to Hurricane Ridge had begun to mix with ice pellets by 8 am Sunday morning. Temperatures stayed below freezing at Hurricane Ridge on Sunday with continuous light precipitation and gusty south winds. 

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1