Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Mt Hood.
Fresh and recent wind slabs will be the main problem Sunday, especially if the snowfall accumulations and strong winds arrive early. Keep terrain selection simple and conservative. Cornices have recently proven dangerous and unpredictable and capable of triggering very large avalanches.
Detailed Forecast
Partial clearing Saturday night along with cool temperatures, should allow any moist to wet snow to re-freeze and form a thin crust layer, especially near and below treeline on all but steep northerly facing terrain.Â
The next frontal precipitation is expected to arrive late Sunday morning and gradually increase along with ridgetop winds through the afternoon. Shallow new wind slabs may become locally sensitive in areas that receive rapid accumulations Sunday afternoon. Â
Recent winds have been mostly SE-SW so firmer wind slab should be found mainly on NW-N-SE slopes near and above treeline. Expected increasing winds Sunday should be similar, mostly S-SW.
Recent cornices are very large. Make sure to avoid areas on ridges where there may be an overhanging cornice as well as travel on steep slopes below cornices! Natural cornice releases and resulting slab avalanches are unpredictable. See a blog post regarding cornices here.
Snowpack Discussion
Weather and Snowpack
The first week or so of March was very cool and snowy. NWAC stations at Mt Hood piled up about 6-7 ft of snow.
The 2nd week of March was equally active with non-stop Pacific frontal systems pummeling the PNW. Unfortunately, these systems delivered far more rain than snow. At least two regional avalanche cycles occurred during the stretch. Significant snowpack consolidation occurred over this period due to rainfall and warmer temperatures.Â
This past week has also been active weather-wise, but water amounts/snowfall totals have been slightly lower relative to the extreme wetness of the past few weeks. In the last 24 hours ending at 5 PM Friday, Mt. Hood stations have picked up 7-9" of snow above 5000'. A slight warming trend occurred during the day on Friday. Winds above treeline have been moderate out of the S-SW. Â
Recent Observations
On Thursday, Mt. Hood Meadows reported widespread, but stubborn shallow hard wind slab, 1-2 ft deep, on the NE slopes between 6000 and 7300 ft. Small loose wet slides remained possible on steeper solar slopes. By Friday, 6-12" storm slabs were sensitive to ski cuts specifically on N-E aspects above treeline. Storm slabs were relatively less reactive near treeline.Â
Laura Green was out in the Timberline area on Friday. Moderate winds, wet snow and poor visibility prevented her from accessing terrain above 6500 feet, but she could see active wind transport occurring in the elevations she traveled. 1 natural wet slab, 20 cm deep, was observed below treeline but in general the rain moistened snow below treeline was not very sensitive to human triggering and no other natural wet snow activity was observed.Â
Mt Hood patrol were unable to reach terrain above treeline Saturday due to winds and poor visibility. Near treeline, a few triggered wind slabs were able to be released with skis, but were only 1-2 inches deep. Large cornice releases at higher elevations may have released avalanches on the slopes below, but this was unconfirmed due to visibility.
Below treeline, shallow surface snow was producing Rollerballs and small loose-wet slides Saturday afternoon during extended sun breaks.  Â
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridgeline areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.
A corniced ridgeline. A large cornice has formed at the top of the ridge. A smaller cornice has formed to the left of the trees from crossloading.
Cornices are easy to identify and are confined to lee and cross-loaded ridges, sub-ridges, and sharp convexities. They are easiest to trigger during periods of rapid growth (new snow and wind), rapid warming, and during rain-on-snow events. Cornices often catch people by surprise when they break farther back onto flatter areas than expected.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 1 - 2