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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 22nd, 2019–Mar 23rd, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Cooler temps with cloud cover will help the snowpack recover some strength on Saturday.  If the sun does comes out, expect the avalanche danger to rapidly increase, especially on solar aspects.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

More cloudy and cooler temperatures are forecast for Saturday with even a chance of some rain.  If the forecast comes true, we can expect a good freeze overnight and then clouds moving in around 6am with a generally cloudy day forecast.  This will allow the snowpack to recover overnight and remain cool during the day.  If the sun comes out though, we can expect avalanche danger to return to high on these solar aspects quickly.

Avalanche Summary

Loose wet and wet slab avalanches up to sz 2 were common on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Moist snow was found up to the summits of regional peaks on all but true north aspects in alpine areas by 10:30 am on Friday.  Treeline and below unskied areas were also becoming isothermal and unsupportive by mid day.  Loose wet slides are failing and pulling out slabs in some areas that are overlying the weak basal facets that have been an issue all season.  Where they are not pulling out slides they are gouging out the facets and running far.  This weeks heat has been a shock to the snowpack and in the long term conditions will improve with cooler temperatures but until then, there is a wet upper snow pack overlying weak basal facets.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Warmer temps have woken up this layer of late. Shallow snowpack areas and cornice triggers are of particular concern. This problem deserves respect as any resulting avalanche will be full depth.
Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Loose Wet

Loose wet slides will occur on solar aspects as soon as the sun comes out.  Pay attention to local could cover and temps.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.If triggered the loose wet sluffs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2