Avalanche Forecast

High -

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly dry with some flurries early Tuesday morning. TUESDAY: Flurries. Light easterly winds at 2000m, moderate southwesterly winds at 3000m. Alpine highs around -15C.WEDNESDAY: Dry, becoming sunny. Light southeasterly winds. Alpine highs around -12C.THURSDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Flurries starting later on. Light easterly winds. Alpine highs around -12C.

A number of significant avalanches have occurred on persistent weak layers in this region over the last several days, making it the hotspot for human-triggered avalanches at this time.On Sunday, a size 3 slab avalanche released at 1750 m on a south aspect when a sluff stepped down to the mid-January layer. Another avalanche was remote-triggered from 80 m away on an east aspect at around 1600 m.On Saturday, a snowmobiler died in a large (size 2) slab avalanche in the Bone Creek drainage (report here). It was triggered by the rider at 2100 m on a south aspect. The crown fracture varied from 15-100 cm deep, suggesting wind loading was a factor in the incident. Also on Saturday, a very large (size 3.5) natural avalanche released in a layer down 70 cm, apparently caused by icefall.On Friday, there were two skier-triggered avalanches reported, one of which was triggered remotely from 25 m away.In addition to the persistent slab avalanches, a number of wind slab avalanche were noted over the weekend, on all aspects at higher elevations.

There are two prominent, touchy weak layers in the snowpack that have been responsible for a several dangerous avalanches, including one fatality in this region. The upper layer was buried at the end of January and lies approximately 40 cm below the surface. The lower one was buried mid-January and lies approximately 75 cm below the surface. Both comprise a mix of surface hoar and facets and may lie on top of a sun crust on southerly aspects. Both layers are highly reactive and in any given location, one or both could potentially exist in the snowpack. Wide propagation has been noted, meaning avalanches have the potential to go big (up to size 3). These weak layers are most prevalent at treeline and below treeline elevations, but may also be found in sheltered areas in the alpine.Strong northerly and easterly winds have created complicated patterns of wind-loaded snow. Many slopes are reverse-loaded or cross-loaded.Average snow depths are approximately 300 cm. Very sporadically, failures have occurred near the base of the snowpack in or close to this region. These releases have almost all been from high alpine areas, possibly triggered close to rocky features.