Avalanche Forecast

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

1030 AM Update: Crystal Pro-patrol reported a skier triggered slab avalanche 100'+ wide that released on a west aspect at 6300' Saturday afternoon (Pickhandle Pt area). The slab likely failed on weak snow (facets) buried 3/6. So the potential to trigger slab avalanches remains in isolated areas where recent storm snow has consolidated and sits upon recently buried weaker snow. 

Previous discussion: Loose wet activity in the Crystal and Paradise areas were limited on Saturday due to cold temperatures and a fair bit of afternoon clouds. That means that sunshine and milder temperatures on Sunday should open up more aspects and terrain for loose wet avalanches. The foot or more of recent storm snow received near and above treeline may become entrained in larger loose wet avalanches.

Professionals reported two small slab avalanches that had released on east aspects near treeline in the Crystal backcountry, likely from Friday afternoon or night. On Saturday, the 3/6 interface under the most recent 8-14" of storm snow was not reactive in snowpack tests or involved in any new avalanches. However, a NWAC forecaster traveling above treeline on Mt. St. Helens Saturday reported large whumpfs on a SE aspect at 7600'. Facets over a sun crust showed strong over weak snow 14" from the surface. Keep this in mind as you choose terrain and push into areas and elevations less traveled, the unseasonably cold temperatures will preserve these instabilities that likely exist in isolated areas. 

It's been several weeks since any avalanches were reported down to the early February crust. After more observations targeting this interface several feet down on Saturday, we feel we have enough information to drop deep persistent slab from the avalanche problem set. We'll continue to monitor this interface as we get deeper into the spring and weather patterns change. 

March 4, 2019

Here we are at the beginning of March. The days are noticeably longer, the sun feels warmer, but the winter is far from over. This may be a good time to take stock of February’s events, where we are now, and what we might expect in the future.

A February to Remember

Many longtime Cascade travelers continue to remark about the long span of high-quality travel conditions in February. Indeed, we’ve experienced three weeks of very cold and snowy conditions. Backcountry travelers frequently reported, “best conditions in years”. February also saw a few rounds of natural and human triggered avalanches. These avalanches were different from our more frequent Cascade storm slabs; here today and gone tomorrow. Most avalanches failed on buried weak persistent layers. As such, most zones spent much of February with Persistent or Deep Persistent Slabs in their forecasts.

Natural avalanche in Icicle Creek Feb 13, 2019. Photo: Matt Primomo

With the notable absence of high elevation rain events, snowpacks around the northwest grew remarkably. On the west slope, most weather stations added 2-4 ft of snow depth. East-side locations added 1-2 ft. Mt Hood locations added 4-5 ft. Even with these impressive snowpack growths, many Cascade Snotel sites are recording near or just below average snow depths for the winter.  

During most of February, snow conditions were soft and powdery making for fun recreating in many areas. Photo Matt Primomo.

Where We Are Now

Lack of avalanche activity on the layer of buried facets from Feb 8 allows us to gain confidence in many areas. In many areas, there has been a lack of avalanche activity and snowpack tests have been less reactive. These two pieces combined have allowed us to drop persistent slabs from some forecasts and shift others to “unlikely.” The exception is the East Cascades where a shallow snowpack has preserved buried facets, and persistent slabs will remain possible until the sensitivity drops further. So, we’re out to the woods, right? Well, maybe. The same cold and stormy weather that brought us excellent snow quality, also allowed us to bury new weak layers. So far we haven’t confirmed any avalanches on these shallow weak layers, but they have our attention and we’re tracking them.

Recently our attention shifted to the upper snowpack. Recent avalanche problems have largely focussed on wind transported snow. Several wind events, predominantly from the east, placed wind slabs on a variety of aspect. With the colder than normal temperatures, wind slabs may not heal as quickly as normal.

A small natural wind slab avalanche in the Crystal Mt backcountry. Photo; Dallas Glass

What Might We Expect

As we move into March, it’s anyone’s guess what specific weather patterns lay in store of us. However, there are two items that stick out in our minds.

• The strength of the March sun: You can already feel it just walking around town. As the sun creeps higher into the sky and the days grow longer, the sun can have a greater impact on the snow surface. When the sun comes out, expect things to change quickly. You may see avalanches conditions change with natural loose avalanches originating from sunny slopes, surface snow becoming thick and heavy, and slabs taking on a moist to wet snow character. 

• High elevation travel: Frequently March begins to usher in a period where we push higher and deeper into the mountains. Remember, we don’t have as much information about these far-flung locations. If you use the longer days of March to travel to bigger objectives, keep your eyes open. When observations don’t line-up with the avalanche advisory, you may be experiencing a different snowpack. It’s times like these we need to stop and reevaluate.

Mt Baker on a nice day in early February. Photo: Lee Lazzara

February was amazing! but March is here… there’s still plenty of winter left. Stay safe out there.