Avalanche Forecast

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

The Pacific Northwest is undergoing a major spring transition. Record-breaking heat early this week gives our snowpack whiplash shortly after six weeks of below-normal temperatures. The upper snowpack has warmed quickly, but cold layers remain not far under the surface.

Tuesday we will be the 3rd day in a row with a poor overnight refreeze. Many small loose wet avalanches have run their course but with every consecutive day of sun, warmth, and meltwater entering the snowpack, nearly all aspects and elevation bands have the potential for large wet snow avalanches as more water enters the snowpack. Wet avalanches can occur at any time of day, but activity will peak during the mid-day and afternoon hours.

For loose wet avalanches, monitor changes in the upper snowpack, looking for natural pinwheels or small loose wet avalanches as clear signs of increasing danger. As the loose wet hazard increases, change your aspect and avoid similar slopes.

Wet slab avalanches are a different story. You may not see direct signs of instability prior to a wet slab release. As the day progresses, deal with the uncertainty surrounding this dangerous and hard to predict avalanche problem by avoiding terrain where avalanches can run, start or stop. The longer the heat wave persists, the more water enters the snowpack and we become increasingly concerned about wet slabs releasing on deeper layers.

In the same vein, steer clear of traveling on or below cornices. Many have melted back but sunny skies and warm daytime temperatures will stress cornices once again and they have the potential to trigger more dangerous wet slabs.

Recent avalanches

NPS rangers reported that a small slab avalanche released naturally on a layer of buried surface hoar roughly 4-8 inches below the snow surface Saturday afternoon on a north aspect at 5200'. It's becoming less likely and harder to find, but this layer may be still reactive on steep and shady aspects at higher elevations.  

Sunrise Slide: N, 5200', 38 degrees, ~8" crown. Photo Credit: NPS Rangers, ONP

Forecast schedule

For the 2018-19 winter season, avalanche danger ratings will be issued for the Olympics every Friday through Sunday and during mid-week holidays.

During the week, No Rating will be issued but forecasts will include expected conditions and relevant travel advice. While this avalanche forecast is focused on backcountry avalanche conditions expected in the Hurricane Ridge area, we want to hear about your observations from other parts of the Olympics as well.

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