Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Storm totals should be in the 10-25cm range with the most intense precipitation occurring on Thursday night. The freezing level drops after the storm and a ridge of high pressure looks to dominate for the foreseeable future.Thursday Night: Freezing Level: 1000m; Precip 5/15mm 5/20cmFriday: Freezing Level: 900m; Precip: 2/5mm 2/10cm; Wind: Mod NWSaturday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom; Precip: Nil; Wind: Mod, NW Sunday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom; Precip: Nil; Wind: Light, Var.(Forecasted wind speeds are at 2000m)

A number of significant avalanches have been reported from the north of this region and just beyond its boundary to the north. One very large (size 3) avalanche was reported on Tuesday on a N aspect at 2200 m from relatively gentle terrain with a fracture depth of 100 cm. Two large (size 2) avalanches were reported from near Golden on Monday, likely triggering buried surface hoar from 10-Dec down around 50 cm. A size 3 natural avalanche was reported from the Bugaboos on Sunday on a NE aspect at 2650m, triggered by a cornice release that pulled out a large slab all the way to ground on the slope below. Outside the boundary of this region to the north of Golden, there was an incident in the Hope Creek drainage, where four people were involved (with two sustaining injuries) in a size 3 avalanche in an alpine feature on a NE aspect. Avalanche activity on Wednesday was limited to small wind slabs.

Up to 25 cm of recent storm snow has been redistributed by moderate to strong northwest and southwest winds. In the upper metre of the snowpack a couple of persistent weak layers exist. The upper one comprises surface hoar and is buried around 40-50 cm. The lower one comprises a facet/crust combo and is buried 80-100 cm. Both interfaces give variable results with snowpack tests, but professional operators are treating them with caution.A bigger concern, especially in the Northern part of the region is a layer of weak sugary depth hoar crystals at the base of the snowpack that lie above a crust from early October. Several large avalanches in the last 10 days have been attributed to failures at this layer. Wide propagations on relatively gentle terrain have been noted, as well as a tendency for seemingly disconnected slopes to become connected by one large avalanche.