Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 25th, 2014 8:19AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Loose Wet.

triley, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Check out the latest blog post on deep persistent slab problems.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Sunday: Continued warm air at higher elevations. Mostly sunny with freezing level up to about 2700 metres. Light Northwest winds becoming Northeast in the late afternoon.Monday: Continued mostly sunny with valley cloud. Freezing levels moving down to about 2300 metres as the inversion slowly breaks down in the alpine. Light Southeast winds.Tuesday: Temperature inversion breaks down as cloud and light precipitation move in from the South. Freezing level at about 1000 metres.

Avalanche Summary

Size 1.0 - 2.0 loose wet "dirty" avalanches were reported from the Duffey Lake area. No other reports from the region.

Snowpack Summary

The surface snow is likely undergoing a melt-freeze cycle on all but high elevation shady aspects, while the entire snowpack may even be trending isothermal at lower elevations. On shady aspects expect to find faceted powder; however, in exposed areas winds have scoured windward slopes, left deep drifts on lee aspects, and and sculpted sastrugi. The record low snowpack is generally well settled and strong; however, a facet/crust combo from late November down approximately 100-120 cm at treeline and alpine elevations continues to give sudden results in snowpack tests. Facets and depth hoar at the base of the snowpack remain a concern on slopes with a shallow and variable snowpack in the Duffey Lake and Chilcotin areas.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Particularly a concern on shallow rocky southern aspects with heavy triggers. Warm temperature and sun-exposure are expected to increase the likelihood of triggering these facets deep in the snowpack. Cornice falls could also act as natural triggers.

Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Avoid convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

3 - 6

Loose Wet

Generally small, slow, and often limited to extreme cliffy terrain; however, these dense avalanches can easily knock you off your feet and take you for a ride.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 26th, 2014 2:00PM