Summary
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Thursday: Cloud turning to flurries in the afternoon as a weak system approaches the coast. 10-15cm possible overnight. Alpine temperature near -3C. Moderate southerly winds.Friday: Light snowfall. Temperatures dropping in the afternoon. Moderate southerly winds veering to north-westerly in the evening. Saturday: Alpine sun and low level cloud. Light westerly winds. Westerly upslope showers possible, easing by afternoon.
Avalanche Summary
Over the last few days, warming and sunshine have triggered avalanches up to size 2.5. Most have been on sunny slopes, but some north aspects became unstable at low elevations and also released. Sporadically, avalanches have failed on the Jan 20th layer with large triggers, like cornice fall. Isolated wind slabs have been triggered by skiers on steep rolls near treeline.
Snowpack Summary
Variable wind slabs have been reported. A melt-freeze cycle has created a crust which is harder and thicker the lower in elevation you go. On north aspects in the alpine, near surface facetting has kept snow dry and loose. Surface hoar of size 1-4mm is likely to get buried by incoming snow on Thursday night. A facet layer buried on Jan 20th still exhibits hard, sudden planar results in isolated snowpack tests and avalanches are occasionally failing on this layer with large triggers. It's about 120-150cm deep in the snowpack. Large cornices have the potential to act as a trigger for deep avalanches on the slope below.
pgoddard,
Avalanche Canada
