Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

A series of frontal systems will affect the region over the next several days bringing periods of moderate to heavy precipitation and very strong winds. Monday: 20-30cm of snow. Very strong S-SW winds. Freezing level (FL) rising to around 1000m. Tuesday: 10-15cm. Moderate to strong SW winds. FL around 1000m. Wednesday: 10-25cm. Strong SW winds. FL rising to 1500m.

Expect widespread natural avalanche activity throughout the forecast period with forecast snow and wind. Several natural slab and loose snow avalanches up to Size 2.5 were observed at lower elevations around Shames and west of Terrace on Saturday. Recent observations have been limited to below treeline.

Over the past week the northwest has been slammed by snow, strong to extreme winds, and fluctuating freezing levels. An additional 25-30cm on Saturday has brought total snowfall over the past week to almost 150cm near Terrace. Locations to the north have seen a little less (Stewart up to 90cms). Alpine observations have been limited and wind sensors have been disabled by rime, but I suspect new snow has been blown around by strong southwest winds creating wind slabs on lee slopes.In addition to the more obvious direct-action storm instabilities that are expected with the forecast weather, local avalanche professionals have some other concerns: Surface hoar that formed during the winter solstice sits approximately 40-60cm below the surface and may become more reactive with more wind and snow. As well, the crust-facet combo (extends up to alpine elevations in the south and to 1000m in the north) from the early december dry-spell sits about 150cm below the surface and has not gone away. Any avalanches on this layer would be highly destructive and are probably waiting for the right load or trigger.