Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 31st, 2012 10:52AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Wind Slabs and Cornices.

Avalanche Canada jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Sunday: a mix of sun and cloud with light snowfall - moderate southwest winds - freezing level at 950m Monday: heavy snowfall continuing overnight - strong to extreme southwest winds - freezing level between 1000 and 1500m Tuesday: light snowfall with possible clearing - moderate southwest winds - freezing level at 700m

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural and human-triggered slabs to size 2.5 were observed in the Duffey lake area over the last few days. The suspected sliding layer has consistently been the March 26th interface. On Face Mountain in the Railroad Pass area 2 sledders triggered a size 2 avalanche while riding the slope at the same time. The slide was 60m wide and 50cm deep and was most likely triggered on the March 26 layer. The sledders escaped without injury.

Snowpack Summary

40-60cm of new snow now overlies an interface that was buried on March 26. This interface consists of a crust that exists on all aspects and elevations except north facing slopes at treeline and above where small surface hoar (5mm) may be found in sheltered areas. This week's snowfall has been accompanied by consistently moderate and at times gusty southerly winds forming windslabs in lee locations. The bonds between the new snow and this buried interface have been weak, especially in locations where the surface hoar is present. Easy planar results have been observed in testing at treeline on surface hoar size 2-4mm. At lower elevations, the consistent high freezing levels have kept the new snow moist and heavy. The deep, persistent early February layers linger in the snowpack and remain a concern with heavy triggers and rapid loading. Cornices are huge, and have continued to grow with this weather pattern.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
Recent storm snow will continue to be reactive, especially where it overlies weak layers buried on March 26th. Solar radiation may also trigger storm snow as a slab or as a loose snow avalanche.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 5

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Windslabs have formed with recent snow and increased wind. They are more reactive where they overlie small, preserved surface hoar.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 4

Cornices

An icon showing Cornices
Large cornices loom at ridgecrest and will continue to grow with forecast weather. A cornice fall could be destructive by itself, or may act as a trigger to deeper weaknesses on the slope below.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 6

Valid until: Apr 1st, 2012 9:00AM