Avalanche Forecast

A significant pattern change is expected to commence Saturday as a strong ridge begins to build. After Friday night, temperatures are expected to remain well above freezing at all elevations for the foreseeable future. SATURDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level beginning around 1200 m, climbing to around 2500 m in the afternoon, no significant precipitation, light variable wind at and below treeline, moderate southwest wind at ridgetop. SUNDAY: Few clouds, freezing level beginning near 2700 m, rising to around 3500 m by the afternoon, no significant precipitation, moderate southwest wind. MONDAY: Mostly clear skies, freezing level near 3500 m all day, no significant precipitation, light south/southeast wind.

No new avalanches reported. In the neighboring Sea-2-Sky region on Thursday, a size 1 storm slab was accidentally triggered by a skier on a north aspect at 2300 m. The slab ran on the crust that's just underneath the most recent storm snow.

Cornices are large, fragile, and could trigger deep slab avalanches that run to valley bottoms. Monitoring the overnight freeze of the snow surface is very important during the spring. If the snow surface does not freeze overnight or if the crust is only a few cm thick, the effect of daytime heating and solar radiation will weaken the snowpack much more quickly than it would if there is a well frozen thick crust. This is because the crust must first melt before the sun can weaken the snowpack. There is an old crust layer down approximately 50cm in the Duffey area and north of Pemberton. This layer has generally been dormant but did produce a couple large avalanches during the last major warming event. With continued warming, this layer could wake-up in isolated locations such as steep, rocky faces. Glide cracks are widespread, active, and best avoided. Low elevation and thin snowpack areas have become isothermal, meaning the snowpack is 0 degrees Celsius throughout. An isothermal snowpack is more prone to full depth wet slab avalanches during the heat of the day, especially on steep, rocky faces.