Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

A blocking ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature for the week.  Dry and clear conditions are expected for Tuesday through Thursday.  Freezing levels are expected to climb to around 2700m on Tuesday afternoon and should be above 3000m on both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, with cooling during the overnight periods.  Strong northwest winds are expected on Tuesday in exposed terrain.  Light to moderate northwesterly winds are forecast for Wednesday and light northwesterly winds for Thursday. 

On Sunday, a natural icefall entrained surface snow and was reported as size 2. Isolated natural wind slabs were reported to size 1 on east aspects at treeline.  In the far north, natural cornice releases were reported to have triggered slabs up to size 3.5 which were stepping down to ground. Point releases were reported up to size 2 and glide cracks up to size 2.5. On Tuesday, substantial warming and sun are expected to result in natural cornice releases and may also result in deep persistent slab releases.  Lingering wind slabs also remain a concern.

At treeline and above small wind slabs overly a variety of surfaces include crust on solar aspects above 1300 m, moist or refrozen snow on all aspects below 1300 m, and settled wind slabs in exposed high elevation terrain. Surface hoar from March 23rd is still being mentioned in the northern half of the region, and now may be covered by up to 20cm of recent storm snow. Professional operators are tracking two deep weak layers from early-January and February that are now down about 1 meter or more. These layers are generally dormant but might wake up with increased warming or a heavy trigger (like a cornice fall). Basal facets exist in some areas and have been shown to be reactive in the north of the region. Rapid warming may wake up deeply buried weak layers.