Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 18th, 2015–Dec 19th, 2015

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Pockets of wind slab continue to be a concern for triggering by human activities. Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain and be aware that older wind slabs may lurk beneath thin new snow layers.

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

Flurries Friday night resulting in 2-3 cm by Saturday morning. Flurries and increasing southwest winds during the day Saturday. Expect 3-5 cm by Sunday morning with strong southerly winds. Winds becoming moderate westerly during the day with continued flurries. 2-5 cm by Monday morning. Freezing levels remaining at valley bottoms during the entire forecast period, and around -12 at treeline.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. Incremental loading should develop thin new wind slabs on lee aspects.

Snowpack Summary

Hungry Hill near Houston has had close to 15 cm in the past 24 hours, and Hudson Bay Mtn reported 11 cm this morning. This will add to the early season snowpacks I had described earlier this weak. Shallow early season snowpack with 60 cm at treeline in drier areas like Babine Mountain and 100 cm at treeline in more westerly areas like Ashman. Both Tsai creek and Shedin creek snow pillows are well below average and very close to historical minimums. Shallow usually means weak, and cooler temperatures over a shallow and weak snowpack may mean a chance of facetted crystals near the ground. We had a report earlier in the week of hard wind slabs over weak basal facets in the east of the region. There may be some lingering surface hoar down 20-30 cm in some areas and I suspect that new surface hoar may be primed for burial by the forecast snow on Thursday.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind direction is variable across the region. Mostly southwest in the south of the region under the influence of Pacific storms, and northeast in the north where the arctic ridge is holding strong and keeping temperatures low.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Avoid travelling in areas that have been reverse loaded by winds.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3