Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

TONIGHT: Cloudy, light flurries. Accumulation up to 2 cm. Ridge wind light, southeast. Temperature -12. Freezing level valley bottom.SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light, east. Temperature -9. Freezing level valley bottom.SUNDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Ridge wind strong, southeast. Temperature -8. Freezing level valley bottom. Alpine inversion.MONDAY: Cloudy, snow. Accumulation 15-25 cm. Ridge wind strong, south. Temperature -5. Freezing level 400 m.

Reports from the Shames area on Thursday detailed "touchy" conditions with natural, remote and skier triggered avalanches up to Size 2 (including an involvement of a canine member of one group), between 1000-1400 m, on south to west aspects where the mid-January crust is quite prevalent. While explosive control work on easterly aspects between 1100-1330 m, produced several storm slab avalanches up to Size 1.5 which also failed on the recently buried, mid-January crust layer. Earlier in the week there were reports of natural and cornice triggered avalanches up to Size 2 failing on the mid-January interface while ski cut results produced storm slab avalanches to size 1.5 near ridge crest. In the Bear Pass area numerous natural wind slab failures from Size 1-2.5 were observed on wind-loaded northerly features as well as Size 1.5-2.5 naturals between 600-1200 m that ran on the mid-December crust layer. And on Monday, areas north of Stewart reported numerous natural loose storm snow avalanches on most aspects, and one skier remote Size 1.5 storm slab avalanche on a southerly aspect at 1400 m and is suspected to have failed on the mid-December interface following a large whumpf.

Approximately 50 cm of recent storm snow covers a widespread crust as well as surface hoar in isolated areas at mid elevations that were buried mid-January. This surface hoar is more likely to exist in sheltered areas at treeline and below and has produced easy, sudden results in recent snowpack tests on northerly aspects between 1300-1450 m in areas north of Terrace.Professionals have also been monitoring a few mid-pack layers within the snowpack including a crust/ surface hoar layer that was buried early-January and now lies 60-100 cm below the surface, and a similar layer buried mid-December that now lies 80-120 cm below the surface. Both of these layers have been reactive in recent snowpack tests producing moderate to hard, sudden results and have also produced recent large, natural avalanches in northern parts of the region near Bear Pass.The lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of areas around Stewart and further north where a basal crust and facets exist.