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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 3rd, 2024–Jan 4th, 2024
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Dogtooth.

Uncertainty about buried weak layers warrants conservative terrain choices.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Deep persistent slab avalanches (size 1.5 to 2) have been continually triggered with explosive control over the past week, with the most recent occurrence on Monday. On Sunday, a skier in the Dogtooth Range was uninjured after accidentally triggering a size 2 deep persistent slab on basal facets over a smooth rock slab.

Snowpack Summary

New snow is (very) gradually accumulating over surface hoar, facets, and crusts. Beneath lies a thin and complex snowpack with several layers of concern:

  • A layer of surface hoar buried 20 to 50 cm deep is a concern in areas where it is not covered by a thick crust.

  • Weak basal facets near the bottom of the snowpack, especially in alpine terrain.

Read this blog post for more details.

Snowpack depths at treeline range from 50 to 130 cm.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy with trace amounts of snowfall, alpine wind southwest 20 km/h, treeline temperature -8 °C.

Thursday

Cloudy with 1 to 2 cm of snow in the afternoon, alpine wind southwest 30 km/h, treeline temperature -6 °C.

Friday

Cloudy with 1 to 5 cm overnight then partly cloudy in the afternoon, alpine wind west 40 km/h, treeline temperature -8 °C.

Saturday

Cloudy with 2 to 5 cm of snow, alpine wind southwest 30 to 50 km/h, treeline temperature -8 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid shallow snowpack areas, rock outcroppings and steep convex terrain where triggering is most likely.
  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

A layer of weak facets near the ground may be reactive to human triggering, especially in shallow rocky alpine terrain where it is not covered by a thick crust.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Persistent Slabs

A layer of surface hoar is buried 20 to 50 cm deep. If triggered, avalanches on this layer could step down to deeper weak layers.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2