Avalog Join
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 13th, 2013–Jan 14th, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Columbia.

Increasing hazard is tied directly to the forecasted warm up. See the forecasters blog for some ideas about the changing situation.

Confidence

Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Sunday night and Monday: The ridge of high pressure that has brought cold temperatures lately is being replaced by a warm front pushing in the interior during the day Monday making temperatures warm up in the alpine and leaving some trace of precipitation during the day. Freezing levels will also rise (700) with a possibility of inversion that could keep the peaks closer to zero degrees as well. Cloud cover should also dissipate in the alpine with some mid-level clouds. Winds are forecasted to be moderate from the Northwest.Tuesday: Similar situation for Tuesday with alpine temperatures being well above normal and strong sun radiation and valley clouds. Winds are expected to be moderate from the Northwest.Wednesday:  Similar outlook for Wednesday with dry conditions and high freezing levels and light West winds.

Avalanche Summary

A few size 1 skier triggered slab avalanches were reported from the South part of the region. Except some sluffing in steep terrain, no other reports since last week's avalanche cycle.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack instabilities that were starting to settle could become unstable again if rapid warming occurs in the next 2 days.  Read the forecaster blog to learn more about this process. The 50-90 cm of snow that fell in the past week is sitting over weaker snow surfaces including surface hoar (found especially at and below treeline in sheltered areas), a sun crust (on steep S to SW -facing slopes) and facets. The distribution of buried surface hoar is patchy, but where it exists, it may become touchy again. Recent winds have also left wind slabs in the lee of terrain breaks such as ridges and ribs at alpine and treeline elevations. In areas sheltered from the wind, fast-moving sluff could throw you off your feet or carry you into a terrain trap. A strong mid-pack overlies a weak facet/crust layer near the base of the snowpack, which is now considered inactive.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Be aware of rapid warming and solar radiation forecasted early this week which will most likely weaken the snow surface, possibly triggering an avalanche on the surface hoar layer down 80-120 cm.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 5

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs may be found behind terrain breaks such as ridges and ribs. These could be triggered by rapid warming and sun radiation over the next few days.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 5