Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 14th, 2014 8:22AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

bcorrigan, Avalanche Canada

South Columbia.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: The interior of BC will come under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure and warm temperatures for the next few days.Overnight: Light precipitation, winds changing to mod to strong,W-SW, freezing levels may rise to 1200m.Wednesday: Some sunny periods, winds moderate to strong from the west, freezing levels to 1200 M in parts of the forecast area.Thursday: No precipitation in the forecast, sunny periods,. light winds at ridge tops freezing level rises to 1600m.Friday: No Precipitation , sunny periods, light winds at ridge tops, freezing levels may rise to 2300m in some parts of the forecast area.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle has been reported throughout the forecast area with avalanches running full path up to size 3.5. Buried persistent weaknesses have now become reactive with heavy loading from snow and wind. Until the snow pack adjusts to the new load, heightened avalanche awareness and caution is needed to travel safely in avalanche terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Parts of the forecast area have received over 80cm of storm snow, now overlying a variety of old surfaces ranging from wind slabs, to a soft layer of facetted snow and / or surface hoar from earlier in January, now buried in the snowpack between 60 and 85cm. There are recent reports of shears in the new storm snow that may be the result of heightened wind activity or changes in the nature of the snowfall during the storm.100cm or more below the surface there is a thin melt freeze crust below 2100m elevation, as well as other buried weak layers (surface hoar, facetted snow, and/or a crust) that continue to be reactive in snowpack tests. There are two deeper layers of note. The late-November persistent weak layer is a sun crust on steep south facing slopes and surface hoar in sheltered areas and now may be 200cm below the surface. The October deep persistent weak layer consists of a layer of facets sitting on a crust at the base of the snowpack. This layer is predominantly found on northerly aspects at tree line and in the alpine. An avalanche stepping down to this layer might dramatically increase the size of the avalanche.

Problems

Storm Slabs

There have been reports of avalanche activity in the new snow as well as on the Jan 8th surface hoar / sun crust interface (now 60 - 80 cm's below the surface), Avoid riding large features and unsupported slopes.

Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Avoid all avalanche terrain.>Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 5

Persistent Slabs

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.

Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

3 - 6

Valid until: Jan 15th, 2014 2:00PM