Avalanche Forecast

A weak cold front will cause rain or snow to shift from north to south over the Olympics and Cascades tonight to Tuesday morning with a slight drop in snow levels. Up to a few inches of snow should be seen in the above treeline with some more rain in the near and below tree line.

Another weak warm front should lift south to north over the Northwest Tuesday afternoon and night and cause light rain or snow with another slight rise in snow levels.

A mixed bag of conditions seems possible on Tuesday with winter like snow conditions possible in the above treeline and wet snow persisting in the near and below treeline.

This forecast will be conservative and list new wind slab as likely in the above tree line on Tuesday. Watch for new firmer wind transported snow mainly on lee N to SE slopes near ridges. You will need to be able to assess this problem for yourself if you travel above treeline on Tuesday.

You should continue to watch for loose wet avalanche conditions in the near and below treeline on Tuesday. Watch for wet surface snow deeper than a few inches that usually precede loose wet avalanches or other triggered or natural loose wet avalanches. Steep slopes near and below treeline are probably still best avoided on Tuesday.

Glide avalanches won't be listed as a problem but avoid areas below steep rocks still holding snow since these slopes can release at unpredictable times.

Storm slab also won't be listed as a problem but watch for this type of layer in area if you find yourself in an area that rapidly accumulated snow on Monday night. A cooling trend, near freezing temperatures and good bonding should limit the possibility of this type of layer. You can test for it with quick hand shear or shovel tilt tests.

Weather and Snowpack

Dry weather with the warmest temperatures of the winter occurred last Sunday to Wednesday with temperatures climbing into the 50's and even the 60's.

A pair of warm fronts brought a wide range of new snow amounts in the 2 to 19 inch range with the most at Baker and Paradise about Thursday to Saturday.

Rain and and mild temperatures predominated along the west slopes Sunday and today. NWAC sites in the near and below treeline will have had rain in the 2-6 inch range for the 2 days ending Tuesday morning.

Bonds should be good in the upper snowpack along the west slopes. The mid and lower snowpack should be mostly consolidated and stable.

Recent Observations

Reports from the Mt Baker pro-patrol Saturday and Sunday indicated the 19 inches of storm snow was reluctant to move during avalanche control. A few isolated wind slab pockets were noted along ridges otherwise the warming Sunday afternoon was causing a few loose wet slides on steep slopes. 

Reports from Stevens Pass Sunday indicated the 8-10 inches of storm snow became sensitive to ski triggers by Sunday late morning. These slides behaved as loose-wet avalanches as surface snow become increasingly wet.

NWAC pro-observer Dallas Glass was out near Mt Baker today and reported several recent large loose wet avalanches on steep north slopes near and below treeline. He also reported a large glide avalanche on a similar slope.