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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 8th, 2016–Feb 9th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Mt Hood.

Another warm and sunny day with freezing levels above 12,000 feet Tuesday will keep the avalanche danger focused on loose wet avalanches. Steeper solar slopes should be the most likely places for natural or skier triggered loose wet avalanches. Solar slopes involve more than just due south aspects as we head further into February, including east in the morning and southwest to west facing by afternoon. 

Detailed Forecast

Another warm and sunny day with light winds is expected again Tuesday. Temperatures pushed into the upper 50's Monday afternoon and it may be a few degrees cooler Tuesday. The avalanche danger will again focus on loose wet avalanches. Steeper solar slopes should be the most likely places for natural or skier triggered loose wet avalanches. Solar slopes involve more than just due south aspects as we head further into February.  

Be aware of loose wet avalanche potential above terrain traps (like above cliffs or near gullies), where even small wet avalanches can become powerful and have unintended consequences.  

Lingering wind slab on lee slopes near and above treeline should be stubborn to trigger, but still may be possible in isolated locations on Tuesday. 

Watch for recent cornices along ridges which may become sensitive to trigger or release naturally during the warm weather.

If pushing higher on the volcanoe Tuesday, the loose wet potential extends well above the top NWAC elevation band with larger avalanches possible.  

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

A pair of fronts crossed the Northwest on Wednesday and Thursday. NWAC stations at Mt Hood for the 2 days ending Friday morning had 18-20 inches of snowfall.

Friday saw a warm system with strong winds bring rain up to near treeline (above 5000 feet) on Mt. Hood before cooling Friday night and depositing about 3 inches of new snow by early Saturday morning. 

The warmest weather of the season is upon us Monday, Feb. 8th. Temperatures on Mt Hood reached the mid 40's to 50's Sunday and have warmed further Monday, ranging from the lower 50's to near 60! If reached 59 F at 7300 feet Monday afternoon! This is causing significant snowpack settlement, and wet snow conditions, especially on solar aspects by Monday afternoon.

Recent Observations

The Meadows pro-patrol reported little activity Friday with isolated wind or storm slab released by explosives or ski cuts in the near and above tree line.

Large wind slabs were triggered with explosives above treeline by Meadows pro-patrol Saturday morning on lee slopes. Near treeline, cross loaded gullies were sensitive to skier triggering with 1 ft slabs possible. A breakable crust dominated below treeline Saturday.  

No new reports were received Monday. 

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.