Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Snow is expected to begin on Thursday and become more intense overnight and into Friday (5-10 cm by Friday afternoon). Winds are forecast to be moderate to strong from the SW to NW. Freezing level at valley bottom. Snowfall becomes light on Saturday.

Persistent slabs continue to be triggered by skiers, vehicles and remote triggers (from a distance away). These have been up to size 2.5 and failing 50-70 cm down on the mid-December crust/surface hoar layer. Many of these have been around treeline elevation. Several smaller wind slabs also failed naturally in response to strong northerly winds.

Snow and wind forecast for Thursday and Friday will add stress to an already volatile snowpack. New snow is expected to hide recent wind slabs which formed in response to strong northerly winds. Storm slabs or wind slabs may be easy to trigger, and could step down to the persistent weak layer of mid-December surface hoar. Below 2100 m this surface hoar sits on a thick, solid crust and has been acting as a perfect sliding layer. Fractures have been propagating long distances and have allowed for remote triggering from adjacent terrain. A hard rain crust with facets from early November is buried more than a metre down and is currently unreactive. However, triggering from shallow rocky and unsupported terrain remains a concern.