If freezing levels and solar input increases dramatically on Tuesday, the potential to trigger an avalanche will increase in the afternoon. Overnight temperatures and overcast conditions seem to be regulating this effect somewhat.
Weather Forecast
Tuesday will be cloudy periods, slightly warm temperatures with freezing level to 1600m and strong W winds at 3000m. Wednesday will have cooling trend, 5mm of precip, and moderate-strong treeline and alpine West winds. Thursday will warm slightly but little change expected.
Snowpack Summary
Last week's extreme NW winds stripped fetch zones. Hard slabs are present on all lee slopes tree line and above. Surface hoar is found 10-40cm down depending on wind-loading patterns. Weak basal facets dominates thin areas. Below tree line, the old storm snow is over a rotten facet base. Colder overnight temperatures helping stability.
Avalanche Summary
A few natural size 1.5-2 avalanches noted Monday on steep unskiable SW alpine terrain but overall activity has subsided. Previous to Saturday, numerous full depth natural slab avalanches occurred on thin, steep, lee alpine slopes up to size 3. They ran far in paths with steep run outs.
Confidence
Freezing levels are uncertain on Tuesday
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.