Take time to evaluate the snowpack before committing to your objectives. Recent storm snow needs time to settle and bond. Persistent weak layers may still be triggered by large loads such as cornice fall or storm snow avalanches.
Weather Forecast
Convective flurries, SW winds edging into moderate at ridge line and an alpine high of -9C today. The next Pacific storm begins tonight with upwards of 25cm by the end of the day Friday. The snow continues through the weekend with mod-strong SW winds and upwards of 25cm of additional snow.
Snowpack Summary
Snowpack Discussion75cm of recent storm snow, 20cm in the last 48hrs at 1900m, along with moderate S'ly winds. Expect to find soft wind slab along ridge lines and lee features. Jan 16 surface hoar is down ~70cm, Jan 4 down ~90cm and Dec 15 down ~1m+ making for a complex sandwich of weak layers.
Avalanche Summary
Jan 29-30, 2018 produced a widespread avalanche cycle to size 3.5. A heli flight yesterday at treeline elevation reported numerous avalanches mainly in the size 2 range, from the same avalanche cycle. Grizzly Bowl released size 3 and ran to 2/3 fan overnight Jan 30-31.
Confidence
Due to the number of field observations
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.