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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 28th, 2018–Jan 29th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

More snow on the way associated with strong winds for the next couple of days will change the hazard quickly. Minimize your exposure.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Weather forecast is indicating 17cm of snowfall for Monday with 55 km/h SW winds.  Temperature in the alpine is to be -4c and freezing level near 1800m.

Avalanche Summary

One size 2 was observed.

Snowpack Summary

Lost happening at different elevations.  At tree line (below 2250m) and below tree line, there is the Jan 6 surface hoar layer that is quite visible in the snowpack. Today, our test results  on this layer were in the hard range but we expect that to vary depending on the valley.  The one thing that is consistent with this layer is that the test results always show it to be sudden planar (clean sheer and pops). Something to keep an eye out as well with the snow arriving on Monday.Above 2250m, the Jan 6 surface hoar layer is more or less is gone.  However the Dec 15 surface hoar layer is down about 80cm.  And here is where it gets interesting.  We have seen some larger avalanches go on this layer and then quiet down. On Monday Jan 29, the forecast is for about 20cm with 55 km/h winds.  That means more wind slabs and more load on this layer which is likely to tip the odds for more avalanche activity.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.