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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 1st, 2018–Jan 2nd, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Warmer weather, denser slab, more likelihood of triggering an avalanche.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Cold air in the valleys, warmer air up high. An above freezing layer is expected from approximately 1900-2400 m. Some valley cloud is possible, clear at upper elevations. Light southwesterly winds.Wednesday: basically a repeat of Tuesday, possibly slightly warmer.Thursday: Cloud developing in the afternoon. Lower elevations becoming warmer, although the above freezing layer is expected to remain in place. Light southerly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports are of a few wind slab avalanches to size 1.5 and loose dry avalanches running in steep terrain. The character of avalanches is expected to change over the next few days, with slab avalanches becoming more likely as the upper snowpack starts to settle with warm temperatures. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

15-30cm of low density new snow has buried a recently formed layer of feathery surface hoar and/or sugary facets. A layer buried mid-December that consists of surface hoar, sun crust and/or sugary facets is now down approximately 30-50cm. This layer is most prevalent in sheltered locations at treeline and below. Until recently, the snow above both of these weak layers has been soft and unconsolidated. Forecast warmer temperatures are expected to make the upper snow more dense, which could increase the likelihood of triggering on these layers. A crust which was formed by rain in late November is another major feature in the snowpack and is down approximately 70-100cm at treeline elevations.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.