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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2018–Jan 4th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Loose wet avalanches are likely in steep, rocky, sunny terrain. Warming could also wake up more deeply buried weak layers.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Mainly cloudy, with flurries possible. A layer of warm air is expected between 2000-2500m, while it remains cold in the valleys. Light variable winds.Friday: Cloudy with flurries. Warm conditions may persist above 1800m in some areas. Moderate southwesterly winds.Saturday: Light snow (5-10 cm). Light to moderate south-westerly winds.More details can be found on the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports are of a few naturally-triggered avalanches to size 1.5 running in steep terrain. These have included solar-triggered loose wet avalanches and wind slabs, depending on slope aspect. Slab avalanches are becoming more likely as the upper snowpack starts to settle with warm temperatures.

Snowpack Summary

Warming, particularly at treeline elevations, could wake up persistent weak layers. The upper snowpack consists of dry snow (becoming moist on sunny slopes) overlying a couple of layers of buried surface hoar (feathery frost crystals). The deeper of these, buried mid-December and down 30-60 cm, is the main concern. A little warming, precipitation and/or wind-loading could be all that is needed to turn powder into a slab above this touchy interface. The buried surface hoar is most prevalent at and below treeline.Deeper in the snowpack (about 70-100 cm down), a rain crust from November remains in the back of our minds, but it is considered dormant for now. If you have any recent observations, please share them through the Mountain Information Network.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.