Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Mar 14 – 15, 2014Avalanche Canada
View on map
Archived · expired 13 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map

Highlights

Check out the latest Forecaster Blog for insight on the current tricky conditions.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–5
    Dynamic conditions are changing with elevation and throughout the day, due to  warming, sun-exposure, snow flurries, and wind. Old storm (persistent) slabs lurk on sheltered slopes, while fresh slabs may form on exposed lee slopes.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–4
    Incoming storms are likely to be rain below 1800 m, further adding to the water saturation in the lower elevation snow-pack. Daytime heating and nighttime cooling are a critical part of the daily hazard evaluation.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3–6
    Due to the high variability and significant potential consequences associated with a deeply buried facet/crust weakness, avalanche professionals have been maintaining a high level of caution and discipline.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with rain showers or scattered flurries bringing 5-10 cm depending on drainage. Mostly light westerly winds with strong gusts associated with snow flurry activity. Freezing levels as high as 2000 m. Sunday: Cloudy with flurries bringing 10-20 cm depending on drainage. Generally moderate but gusty westerly winds. Freezing levels dropping slightly to 1800 m. Monday: Mostly cloudy with snow flurries bringing another 5-10 cm. Generally light westerly winds gusting with flurry activity, and freezing levels down to 1600 m.

Avalanche Summary

A recent natural cornice triggered Size 2.5 avalanche was observed Smith Basin area north of Elkford. As the snowpack warms during the day, loose wet surface avalanches as well as deeper persistent slab avalanches become sensitive to triggering.

Snowpack Summary

Recent overnight freezes have been stabilizing the wet upper snowpack, at least until the surface crust beaks down with daytime heating. This surface melt/freeze cycle is extending as high as alpine elevations on south aspects in the southern part of the region, but north of Elkford it's still winter-like with dry snow above 1800 m. Recent storm and wind slabs are bonding poorly to buried surface hoar and facets particularly on sheltered slopes such as cut blocks, and crust on previously sun-exposed slopes. Warm temperatures and sun-exposure have been making these and deeper persistent slabs very sensitive to triggers. The deep facet/crust persistent weakness buried at the beginning of February, now down 100-150+ cm, has been described by avalanche professionals as "very weird". Although widespread, it has been highly variable in terms of reactivity. Weak basal facets exist in many areas, but without a large load, triggering now is unlikely.

Regions covered