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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2014–Mar 15th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

Check out the latest Forecaster Blog for insight on the current tricky conditions.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with rain showers or scattered flurries bringing 5-10 cm depending on drainage. Mostly light westerly winds with strong gusts associated with snow flurry activity. Freezing levels as high as 2000 m. Sunday: Cloudy with flurries bringing 10-20 cm depending on drainage. Generally moderate but gusty westerly winds. Freezing levels dropping slightly to 1800 m. Monday: Mostly cloudy with snow flurries bringing another 5-10 cm. Generally light westerly winds gusting with flurry activity, and freezing levels down to 1600 m.

Avalanche Summary

A recent natural cornice triggered Size 2.5 avalanche was observed Smith Basin area north of Elkford. As the snowpack warms during the day, loose wet surface avalanches as well as deeper persistent slab avalanches become sensitive to triggering.

Snowpack Summary

Recent overnight freezes have been stabilizing the wet upper snowpack, at least until the surface crust beaks down with daytime heating. This surface melt/freeze cycle is extending as high as alpine elevations on south aspects in the southern part of the region, but north of Elkford it's still winter-like with dry snow above 1800 m. Recent storm and wind slabs are bonding poorly to buried surface hoar and facets particularly on sheltered slopes such as cut blocks, and crust on previously sun-exposed slopes. Warm temperatures and sun-exposure have been making these and deeper persistent slabs very sensitive to triggers. The deep facet/crust persistent weakness buried at the beginning of February, now down 100-150+ cm, has been described by avalanche professionals as "very weird". Although widespread, it has been highly variable in terms of reactivity. Weak basal facets exist in many areas, but without a large load, triggering now is unlikely.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.