Solar radiation may increase the hazard higher than forecasted on solar aspects. Give cornices a wide berth during these warm conditions.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Unsettled weather on Sunday with flurries likely not amounting to more than 5cm. Moderate to strong westerly ridgetop winds on Sunday/Monday. Freezing levels should remain under 1700m throughout the forecast period.
Avalanche Summary
On Friday several natural loose wet size 1 avalanches were reported on steep solar aspects.
Snowpack Summary
Cornices are large and looming. Minimal overnight crust recovery. The mid February layer is down 45-65cm and is a crust in most areas. This layer is generally well bonded to the overlying persistent slab. However, in isolated ares there is surface hoar or facets overlying this crust making the interface much more likely to produce large avalanches.
Problems
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.