Avalanche forecast

Sea To Sky

Jan 27 – 28, 2016Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

A warm, wet and windy storm will bring the Avalanche Danger to High

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Recent storms have formed very large and unsupported cornices, and at least one person has taken an unexpected ride. Use extra caution around ridge crests in the alpine.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3–5
    There are still areas where last week's storm and subsequent avalanche cycle did NOT destroy buried surface crystals. In these areas, loading from rain and snow will continue to stress these layers with the potential for large, destructive avalanches

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–4
    Heavy snowfall and extreme winds on Wednesday and Thursday morning will form deep and dense storm slabs at higher elevations. Watch for increased triggering in wind-exposed terrain.

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

Up to 30mm of precipitation is forecast for Wednesday night with another 20cm of snow expected on Thursday. Ridgetop winds will remain extreme from the southwest while freezing levels will drop throughout the day from 2000m to about 1500m. On Friday and Saturday the region will see generally light flurries, significantly decreased winds and freezing levels around 1000m.

Avalanche Summary

In recent days, backcountry avalanche observations have been extremely limited, mostly due to stormy weather. Looking forward, continued warm, wet and windy weather is expected to spark ongoing storm slab activity in high elevation lee terrain, but warm temperatures and loading will also increase the likelihood of waking up any lingering persistent weaknesses that were not triggered by last week's storm.

Snowpack Summary

On Wednesday night and Thursday morning, moderate to heavy snow and strong winds will continue to form deep and dense storm slabs in high elevation terrain and cause substantial cornice growth. At treeline and below, rain is forecast to further saturate the snowpack. In many areas, the early and mid-January surface hoar layers have been wiped-out by last week's storm and subsequent avalanche cycle; however, "sudden" test results and isolated persistent slab avalanches prove these interfaces should remain on your radar. These layers would be down between 80 and 150 cm deep, and still have the capacity to surprise with nasty consequences. The mid and lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of shallower snowpack areas that may be more faceted.

Regions covered