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Confidence
Fair - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
A weak system will spread light snowfall and moderate southwest winds to the region on Tuesday. On Wednesday expect a mix of sun and cloud and light ridgetop winds. By late Thursday a more intense frontal system should impact the region bringing steady snowfall. Freezing levels should hover around 1000m for the forecast period.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been reported.
Snowpack Summary
The recent prolonged storm dropped 100-200 mm of water, with fluctuating freezing levels bringing rain at times to alpine elevations. Snow also accumulated above treeline, leading to deep wind slabs. Storm and winds slabs may remain problematic for the short term. However, my bigger concern is a buried crust/facet layer which formed in November and is now down 1-2 m. This woke up with the recent storm snow loading and has the potential for deep slabs and wide propagations, and does not inspire huge confidence. The likelihood of triggering this beast is dropping, however the consequences remain high.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.