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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 3rd, 2017–Apr 4th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

Avoid steep exposed terrain if you encounter wet snow deeper than a few inches and initial rollerballs or small loose wet avalanches that can indicate an increasing loose wet avalanche danger. Avoid travel on or below cornices.

Detailed Forecast

Fair weather Monday night will allow for a strong surface re-freeze. Cloudy conditions with slow warming and a little light rain late Tuesday will maintain shallow wet snow conditions Tuesday. 

Avoid steep sun exposed terrain if you see wet snow deeper than a few inches and initial rollerballs or small loose wet avalanches that can indicate an increasing loose wet avalanche danger.

Recent cornices are very large. Natural cornice releases and resulting slab avalanches are dangerous and unpredictable. Give cornices a wide berth if traveling along ridge-lines and avoid slopes below large cornices. See a blog post regarding cornices here.

Past wind slabs should have mostly stabilized where formed on lee slopes and will not be listed as an avalanche problem for Hurricane.

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack 

Several inches of rain fell in the Olympics and Cascades on Friday, 3/17 to Saturday 3/18. Rapid cooling following the event formed a very strong crust layer, now buried by snowfall in late March.

The dominant wind pattern for the last several frontal systems at Hurricane have been moderate sustained S-SE winds. This transported snow to build fresh wind slabs in the Hurricane Ridge area.

Daily early spring warming temperatures in late March have allowed surface snow melt and consolidation at Hurricane at nearly the same rate as snow accumulations which should generally indicate strong surface layers.

A weak front crossed the Northwest on Saturday morning, causing light rain with shallow light amounts of snow late Saturday. 

Clearing overnight Sunday followed by sunshine Monday allowed for another melt freeze cycle with strong crust layers and shallow recent snow. 

Recent Observations

No recent observations. 

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.