Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Apr 15 – 16, 2016Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
No rating
Treeline
No rating
Below
No rating

Highlights

The heat is on! If you're hoping to get one more alpine mission in, you need to get out super early Saturday and plan to be out of avalanche terrain no later than lunch time. Watch for the odd small wind slab in the alpine Saturday morning.

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3–6
    If the sun is shining, cornices present a significant hazard. Even if they don't trigger a slab avalanche when they fall onto a slope, they have a nasty habit of running surprisingly long distances.
  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Rising temperatures and periods of direct sunshine on Saturday will likely initiate a fresh round of loose wet activity as the storm snow from earlier this week looses cohesion.
  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    4–7
    Rapidly warming temperatures and little to no overnight recovery this weekend will increase the potential for deep wet slab release.

Weather Forecast

A significant pattern change is expected to commence Saturday as a strong ridge begins to build. After Friday night, temperatures are expected to remain well above freezing at all elevations for the foreseeable future. SATURDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level beginning around 1200 m, climbing to around 2500 m in the afternoon, no significant precipitation, light variable wind at and below treeline, moderate southwest wind at ridgetop. SUNDAY: Few clouds, freezing level beginning near 2700 m, rising to around 3500 m by the afternoon, no significant precipitation, moderate southwest wind. MONDAY: Mostly clear skies, freezing level near 3500 m all day, no significant precipitation, light south/southeast wind.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. In the neighboring Sea-2-Sky region on Thursday, a size 1 storm slab was accidentally triggered by a skier on a north aspect at 2300 m. The slab ran on the crust that's just underneath the most recent storm snow.

Snowpack Summary

Cornices are large, fragile, and could trigger deep slab avalanches that run to valley bottoms. Monitoring the overnight freeze of the snow surface is very important during the spring. If the snow surface does not freeze overnight or if the crust is only a few cm thick, the effect of daytime heating and solar radiation will weaken the snowpack much more quickly than it would if there is a well frozen thick crust. This is because the crust must first melt before the sun can weaken the snowpack. There is an old crust layer down approximately 50cm in the Duffey area and north of Pemberton. This layer has generally been dormant but did produce a couple large avalanches during the last major warming event. With continued warming, this layer could wake-up in isolated locations such as steep, rocky faces. Glide cracks are widespread, active, and best avoided. Low elevation and thin snowpack areas have become isothermal, meaning the snowpack is 0 degrees Celsius throughout. An isothermal snowpack is more prone to full depth wet slab avalanches during the heat of the day, especially on steep, rocky faces.

Regions covered