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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2013–Mar 13th, 2013

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Another 15-25cm of snow is expected with freezing levels rising as high as 1800m and strong southwest winds. Thursday: 20-30cm of new snow or more for immediate coastal areas, with freezing levels around 1600m and light to moderate southeasterly winds. Friday: Continued snowfall with another 5-10cm of accumulation, or more for immediate coastal areas. Freezing levels dropping to 1200m and moderate southwesterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Tuesday include numerous Size 1.0 to 2.0 storm slab avalanches running easily on recently buried surface hoar and sun crust at treeline and alpine elevations. Most avalanches were human-triggered with explosives or slope-cuts but a few naturals were observed in the afternoon out of steep rocky treeline terrain with a temperature spike. Numerous natural loose moist avalanche up to Size 2 were also observed on all aspects at treeline and below in a coastal area.

Snowpack Summary

Approximately 30cm of new snow had already fallen by Tuesday morning and another 20-30cm is expected by the end of the day. This new snow is bonding poorly to the previous snow surface, which includes faceted snow, surface hoar, and/or a crust, but is most concerning where surface hoar is sitting on a crust on previously sun-exposed sheltered treeline slopes. Around a metre below the snow surface is a layer surface hoar buried on February 20th. Although this layer has a history of producing large avalanches, triggering this layer has now become difficult, and would most likely require a very large trigger on a steep, unsupported slope. Below this interface, the snowpack is strong and well settled.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.